Nobody knows how many refugees and migrants from Burma now live in Thailand. The best guess is about 1.5 million. Only a very small minority — about 150,000 — are refugees living in the 10 refugee camps on the Thai side of the Thai-Burma border. The Thailand Burma Border Consortium website provides comprehensive information about the camps — www.tbbc.org. The rest of the 1.5 million people divide into two roughly equal groups of legal and illegal migrants based mainly in border towns. Legal migrants have papers that allow them to live and work in Thailand. Illegal migrants do not, and can be shipped back to Burma at any time — though in fact many stay in Thailand on a long-term basis.

Exactly why 1.5 million citizens of Burma are now based in Thailand is a very complex issue. The push factors inside Burma include an entrenched military regime, ongoing slow-burn civil war between the mainly Burman army and some of the ethnic groups along the border, economic failure and limited opportunities for work, and pervasive political repression and human rights abuse. The pull factors inside Thailand include escape from the Burmese army and a heightened degree of personal security, job openings (almost always low grade and low paid) and, for some, the possibility of resettlement to a third country. The facilitative factors include a porous border that can be crossed in five minutes on an inflated inner tube, and a Thai police force that will often turn a blind eye to illegal migrants because of the benefits they bring to local businesses.